40 candidates, 18 realistic slots: Likud primary sets up brutal battle for survival

Forty ministers, lawmakers and former lawmakers are competing for significantly fewer realistic positions on Likud's national slate, creating an exceptionally competitive primary race that threatens to eliminate several experienced party members from the next Knesset.

The party released its complete list of primary candidates Thursday evening. With one candidate's withdrawal, 40 people remain in contention for national list spots.

The candidate-to-seat ratio creates an especially harsh dynamic. Given Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's reserved positions and restructuring of the top 10, only 15 realistic slots exist for male candidates through the 30th position, while just three realistic slots remain for women despite eight sitting female incumbents.

The result is likely to be consequential: several long-serving Likud ministers are expected to fail to secure realistic placements, and prominent lawmakers may similarly find themselves positioned below viable ticket positions.

The party currently has 14 senior officials competing in the crowded field, including Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana and ministers Eli Cohen, Yariv Levin, Miri Regev, Nir Barkat, Yoav Kisch, Miki Zohar, Shlomo Karhi, Avi Dichter, Amichai Chikli and Dudi Amsalem.

Four senior female ministers are also running: Miri Regev, Gila Gamliel, May Golan and Idit Silman.

Coalition chairman Ofir Katz, a prominent outgoing Knesset figure and close Netanyahu political ally, is also competing alongside the ministers.

Beyond the national-list candidates, 84 others will seek reserved representation and regional positions. These include eight candidates for youth representation, seven for immigrant slots, six for non-Jewish sector representation, five for disability slots and 13 for a newly designated women's position.

Regional contests feature 12 candidates in a newly consolidated Jerusalem, West Bank and Shfela district, 10 in the Dan and Tel Aviv district, four in the Negev, five in the Galilee and valleys, six in the coastal plain, six in regional councils and two in Haifa.