AOC Passes Rubio, Now No. 2 in Polymarket's 2028 Odds

Speculation is mounting that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could pursue the presidency in 2028, with the New York Democrat advancing to second place in Polymarket's prediction market for the presidential race and showing competitive support among potential Democratic primary candidates.

Polymarket announced Thursday that Ocasio-Cortez had surpassed Secretary of State Marco Rubio in its 2028 market for the first time this year, trailing only Vice President JD Vance. Vance held the top position at 23%, while Ocasio-Cortez stood at 13% and Rubio at 12%. Sen. Jon Ossoff and Gov. Gavin Newsom each registered 9%, with Kamala Harris at 4%.

Ocasio-Cortez has not definitively stated her intentions regarding a White House run. When asked by ABC News' "This Week" On Aug. 2 about presidential plans, she said: "I'm focused on winning the midterms. I'm running for Congress right now." She added: "I haven't ruled out the possibility. And I'm very humbled to the tremendous amount of support out there."

A University of New Hampshire survey of likely Democratic primary voters conducted last month showed Ocasio-Cortez narrowly leading a hypothetical field with 22% support compared to 21% for Pete Buttigieg.

Vice President Vance has suggested Ocasio-Cortez could emerge as the Democratic nominee. On "The Michael Knowles Show" On June 30, he said: "I think it's got to be AOC. I know that's probably conventional wisdom." When pressed on whether she had better prospects than other candidates, Vance attributed the outcome to internal party dynamics: "The question would be who do you think really has the power in the Democratic Party," Adding that "If you think it's the universities, it would be AOC."

National polling averages present a different picture. RealClearPolitics shows Harris leading at 28.9%, followed by Newsom at 16.4%, Buttigieg at 10.5%, and Ocasio-Cortez at 8.8%.

On the Republican side, Vance leads RealClearPolitics polling at 39.8% versus Rubio's 21.6%. Rubio has downplayed speculation about his own 2028 candidacy, though he recently won a Republican straw poll at the Western Conservative Summit by a significant margin.