Bruce Blakeman Could Unseat Hochul and Turn New York Red, Stunning Poll Reveals

A Siena College poll conducted in early August shows Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman performing more competitively against Gov. Kathy Hochul than Lee Zeldin did at a comparable stage four years earlier, potentially making New York's governor's race a closely watched national contest.

The survey of likely voters found Hochul leading 49% to 39%-a 10-point advantage. By comparison, in August 2022, Hochul held a 14-point lead over then-Long Island Congressman Zeldin. Despite that larger margin, Hochul ultimately won by six points in 2022.

Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said, "With less than three months till Election Day, Hochul holds a 10-point lead over Blakeman, 49-39%, not crossing the magic 50% mark," Adding, "The race is already competitive."

The election is scheduled for Nov. 3.

Hochul's lead narrowed compared to other Democratic statewide candidates. Attorney General Letitia James leads her Republican challenger by 18 points, while State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli holds a 23-point advantage.

Hochul's strongest support comes from women, leading among female voters by 19 points while the race among men is essentially even. She holds a 60-point advantage among Black voters and leads by 45 points in New York City. Blakeman performs best in the suburbs, leading 49% to 41%, with upstate voters split evenly.

Blakeman performs relatively well among religious voters, including Catholics and Jewish voters, of which he receives 42% support. He is Jewish.

On policy issues, Hochul leads on affordable housing and lowering the cost of living, while public safety remains the closest issue, with Hochul favored by 47% and Blakeman by 44%.

Other recent polls commissioned by Republican-aligned groups show tighter margins, with surveys showing Hochul ahead by four and six points respectively.

The Siena survey interviewed 811 likely voters between Aug. 3 and Aug. 6, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.