In Rejecting Trump's Gaza Plan, Netanyahu Reprises a Balancing Act He Has Mastered

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Maintaining strong relations with the United States while resisting demands perceived as threatening to Israeli security ranks among the most critical responsibilities of any Israeli prime minister. Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving leader, has navigated this balance for years, but the task has grown more difficult as the Iran conflict stalls and President Donald Trump pursues peace initiatives elsewhere - all within three months of Israeli elections.

On Sunday, Netanyahu rejected Trump's latest proposal to revive stalled ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. Netanyahu stated that Israel will not withdraw from the approximately 60% of Gaza territory it currently controls until Hamas is completely disarmed, a condition the militant group - which controls the remaining 40%-has long refused to accept.

The rejection risks straining Netanyahu's relationship with Trump, whom he has repeatedly called the greatest friend Israel has had in the White House. However, any appearance of compromise with Hamas could prove politically fatal for Netanyahu's reelection bid in a country still reeling from the Oct. 7, 2023, attack that occurred during his tenure.

Trump, facing pressure to show his effectiveness as a global peacemaker as Iran talks stall and fuel prices remain elevated ahead of November congressional elections, had announced the Gaza plan last month as a follow-up to his October ceasefire agreement.

That earlier agreement halted major Israeli military operations in Gaza and secured the release of remaining hostages but has since largely stalled. Under Trump's latest proposal, Hamas would gradually surrender its weapons while Israeli forces would cease attacks and begin withdrawing from Gaza. Hamas accepted the deal, though it conditioned surrender of its heaviest weapons on Palestinian statehood - a prospect Israel's government and most of its political establishment firmly reject.

Netanyahu's rejection leaves other ceasefire elements - including deployment of international forces and territory reconstruction - suspended pending complete Hamas disarmament.

Since the ceasefire took effect, Gaza's Health Ministry reports over 1,250 deaths from Israeli strikes. Israeli media reported that strike authority has been restricted to the army's chief of staff, suggesting a quiet accommodation toward Trump's ceasefire push. An official with the Trump-led Board of Peace, overseeing the ceasefire, told the Associated Press: "We are focused on actions, not rhetoric or politics." The official noted "some results on the ground in the last few days," Including "restraint from strikes" And new Israeli military procedures, and stated: "There is constructive cooperation behind the scenes and our conversations continue."

Netanyahu has campaigned on military achievements in wars following Oct. 7, during which Israeli forces seized territory in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria while launching major air operations against Iran. Yet the "total victory" In Gaza he promised remains elusive. Many Israelis hold him responsible for security failures preceding the initial attack and for past efforts to manage Hamas, including allowing Qatar to deliver cash shipments to Gaza.

Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners, likely essential for forming a government after elections, have supported his plan rejection. One analyst noted that Trump wants genuine steps toward Gaza rehabilitation, but Netanyahu's right-wing allies and struggling reelection campaign prevent concessions.

Trump's popularity in Israel has declined as he has sought to de-escalate the Iran conflict. During his first term, Trump strongly backed Israel's territorial claims and moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem. This continued in his second term as he supported Israel's Gaza actions and participated in bombing Iran. But when Israel pushed for additional strikes on Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon while Trump sought to wind down regional conflict to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease global economic pressure, their interests diverged.

Trump has said he would "likely" Endorse Netanyahu before Israeli elections but has not yet formally done so. While U.S. Presidential endorsements carry weight in Israel, the emerging rift may complicate Netanyahu's campaign. One Israeli think tank director observed that Israelis previously assumed Trump considered Israeli security in his decisions - an assumption no longer widely held.

Netanyahu has historically defied U.S. Presidents, resisting Clinton's Palestinian peace efforts during his late-1990s term and clashing openly with Obama over the Iran nuclear deal. However, this approach now carries greater risks as Israel's military campaigns have left it diplomatically isolated and eroded its historic Democratic voter support, making Trump one of Israel's few remaining strong allies.