Although California Gov. Gavin Newsom is widely expected to seek the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, recent polling indicates that former Vice President Kamala Harris currently holds a clear advantage over him and other potential Democratic contenders.
Across 14 major national surveys, Harris has consistently led the Democratic field. An Echelon Insights poll conducted between July 9 and July 13 placed Harris seven percentage points ahead of Newsom. A Quantus Insights survey from July 3 through July 7 showed Harris leading by 18 points with 35% support among Democratic voters.
Harris has occupied the top position in national polling since late May. The last major survey not showing her in first place was conducted by Emerson College on May 24 and 25, which placed former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg narrowly ahead by two points, with Newsom at 16% and Harris at 10%.
Since then, Newsom has remained in second place in virtually every major survey, generally receiving between 15% and 20% support. Political analysts note that early polling often reflects candidates' public visibility more than eventual election outcomes, though such surveys can influence perceptions about candidate viability.
Harris has fueled speculation about another White House campaign following her 2024 presidential defeat to President Trump. In recent months, she has taken steps observers view as efforts to strengthen support within key Democratic constituencies, including outreach to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a prominent figure among the party's progressive wing.
Newsom has continued to position himself as one of President Trump's most outspoken Democratic critics. His support for a federal tax on billionaires while opposing a similar proposal in California has been viewed by some observers as an effort to maintain progressive support while appealing to a broader national electorate.
"This whole jiu-jitsu he has to do to oppose the [billionaire] tax in his state and then support it federally, it doesn't sound as authentic as others might sound on the soapbox at the Iowa State Fair," GOP strategist Rob Stutzman told CalMatters.