Polymarket Odds Fall to About 30% for U.S.-Iran Strait of Hormuz Shipping Agreement by Aug. 31

Prediction market Polymarket on Sunday priced the probability of a U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreement on Strait of Hormuz shipping by August 31 at roughly 30 percent, reflecting a decline from earlier expectations as negotiations have stalled. The market valued the August 31 outcome near 27-28 percent, with a separate August 15 window showing substantially lower odds.

Iran has conditioned any full reopening of the strategic waterway to additional U.S. Concessions, including compensation for damages from earlier conflict, sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade, and other measures following a June memorandum of understanding intended to pause hostilities and restore transit. Iranian officials have stated the strait will not fully reopen until Washington "corrects its behavior."

Negotiations involving Oman are ongoing, with Iran and Oman advancing work on shipping routes and coordinates for an interim management framework. Reports indicate a draft is nearing final stages pending higher-level approval. U.S. Participation has been indirect through intermediaries, and a comprehensive U.S.-Iran accord on Hormuz traffic remains unfinalized.

The diplomatic uncertainty has supported elevated oil prices, with Brent crude climbing above $84 a barrel as markets assessed risks to a critical global energy transit route. While officials across multiple sides have expressed interest in restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, core disagreements over conditions and implementation have prevented a comprehensive agreement from being reached.