During the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, over 6,000 operatives from Gaza crossed the border, with approximately half trained and armed members of designated terrorist organizations and half additional Gaza residents. The furthest-penetrating group reached Ofakim, approximately 14 miles from Gaza.
According to the analysis, the Palestinian Authority's security apparatuses in the West Bank now number roughly ten times the total number of attackers who invaded that day. Described as a trained military force holding tens of thousands of weapons, these apparatuses have grown substantially since their establishment under the Oslo Accords, which stipulated they would function as a limited police force.
The proximity of these forces to Israeli population centers presents a strategic concern. The distance from Qalqilya in the West Bank to the Mediterranean coast measures approximately 9 miles, with millions of Israeli citizens living within a 14-mile radius of the 1949 Green Line in areas including Kfar Saba, Ra'anana, Hod Hasharon and Herzliya.
The Palestinian Authority security forces have expanded from their originally agreed size. Crime statistics from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics showed 1,335.6 offenses per 100,000 residents in 2024, described as relatively low by international standards. The analysis contends that such crime rates would not justify establishing a large military force, and that the current capabilities - including armored vehicles and heavy weapons - exceed requirements for civilian policing.
Personnel numbers grew from an agreed limit of 9,000 to approximately 65,829 by 2018. The armed apparatuses now possess tens of thousands of weapons compared to the 4,000 rifles authorized under the original agreements.
The analysis traces this expansion from the Gaza-Jericho Agreement implementation in 1994 through later reorganizations and funding arrangements. It notes that despite obligations to counter terrorist organizations operating in Palestinian territory, the security apparatuses have not substantially done so in practice, with approximately 12 percent of security prisoners originating from their ranks.
The assessment concludes that continuing current policies represents a significant risk and recommends halting weapons transfers, reducing personnel to agreed levels, establishing independent oversight mechanisms, and preparing military defenses accordingly.