Trump's push for a Hormuz deal alarms experts over terms ceding oversight to Iran

Experts are voicing concern about reports that a potential agreement between Iran and Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz could grant Tehran significant oversight of the international shipping route. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that substantial progress had been made in negotiations, suggesting an announcement could come within the week. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed Wednesday that talks with Oman had reached a final stage, while Iran's deputy foreign minister denied direct U.S. Negotiations and cautioned that an agreement would not automatically reopen the waterway. Iranian state media reported that a draft bill under parliamentary review could bar U.S. And Israeli vessels from the strait.

According to reports, any agreement would likely last 60 days and require the U.S. To lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports. The arrangement could lead to clearing naval mines, broadening ceasefire efforts, and resuming talks on Iran's nuclear program. Under proposed terms, inbound vessels would use a northern route through Iranian waters while outbound ships would traverse a southern route in Omani waters, coordinated with Iran. A U.S. Official told the Associated Press that a deal would prevent Iran from issuing formal ship approvals, collecting tolls, or charging service fees - though analysts contend that formalizing Iranian oversight represents a significant strategic concession.

Matthew Levitt of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy said "President Trump is very eager for a deal that reopens the strait, and seems inclined to accept a deal under which Iran has greater oversight of ships entering and exiting the strait," Adding that "The key is denying Iran any way of monetizing the flow of traffic through this international waterway."

Daniel Shapiro, a former U.S. Ambassador to Israel, characterized the described deal as "a strategic win for Iran," Noting that "Iran will emerge with effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, which was a fully open international waterway before the war." He stated that "The United States will be strategically worse off with this outcome than we were before the war, but it is almost certainly the only way to prevent an escalation that would produce even greater global economic disruption than we have already seen." Shapiro added that Iran would likely receive early sanctions relief and only be expected to begin nuclear negotiations, which "could turn out to be fruitless and endless."

Jonathan Ruhe of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America highlighted differing interpretations of the agreement, observing that Iran expects practical ability to toll and veto passage. He stated "Tehrans redline for a deal is recognition of its right to determine and deter shipping in Hormuz, as the spoils of its victory and a key counterweight to further U.S. pressure." Ruhe warned that even a successful agreement could set a dangerous precedent by affirming Iran's approval over the waterway's fate.

Richard Goldberg, a Foundation for Defense of Democracies senior advisor and former Trump official, cautioned that the deal's final structure will determine whether Washington concedes use. He suggested Iran's rhetoric may be exaggerated, noting that "in practice it could mean ships are just moving through the strait as they always used to without taking drone or missile fire," And distinguished between formal control arrangements and claims lacking actual enforcement mechanisms.