Data from 30 American cities show an 18% decrease in the homicide rate from 2025 compared to the same period in 2026, representing approximately 215 fewer homicides this year, according to a report released Thursday by the independent Council on Criminal Justice.
If the trend continues, the annual homicide rate could reach its lowest level in over a century when final figures are released at year's end.
The report examined 13 crime categories and documented declines in nine, including carjackings, residential burglary and aggravated assaults. Shoplifting, domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults and drug offenses showed small increases over the same 2025-to-2026 period.
Experts said the improvements exceed expectations and outpace baseline crime rates from before 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic triggered historic surges in violence.
The positive trends have been noted by Democrats and Republicans during the competitive midterm election year. However, the documented improvements span cities with diverse political leadership, according to Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice.
"Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map in cities with different political leadership, different housing and economic conditions, different policing and prosecution and violence reduction strategies and different levels of federal enforcement activity," Gelb said.
The council gathers data from police departments and law enforcement sources. Some report categories include data from as many as 36 cities, while others encompass fewer cities due to tracking gaps or differing crime definitions.
A significant reduction in violent crime lethality emerged: a 23% drop in the share of serious violent crime that is fatal. Residential burglaries fell 13% year over year and 50% compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Shoplifting increased 5%, and drug offenses rose slightly, though remaining below pre-pandemic levels.
About one-third of the 30 sampled cities recorded increases in deadly violence from the first half of 2025 to the same 2026 period. Norfolk, Virginia experienced a 64% homicide increase, and San Francisco saw a 55% increase. Only Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh and Minneapolis recorded more homicides in 2026 than in the same 2019 period.
John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at the National Opinion Research Center from the University of Chicago, noted multiple factors explain variations across locations. Conservative politicians point to immigration crackdowns and National Guard deployments in cities like Los Angeles and Memphis, while liberal politicians cite former President Joe Biden's public safety legislation strengthening firearm background checks.
Roman said broader factors transcend specific administrations, including decreased drug usage reducing illegal market activity linked to violence, and federal pandemic-era funding directed toward social programming. These programs often supported positions like teachers and social workers serving "young people who are the highest risk of violence and victimization."
While Gelb and Roman agreed no single factor drove the outcomes, Gelb said the results merit study and recognition.
"This is one of the most significant public safety developments in decades. It means lives are being saved, families are spared trauma and communities are regaining stability," Gelb said.